Fantasy Football Mock Draft

Everyone has played fantasy football at some point on Yahoo.  As a result, many of us are familiar with the Yahoo experts.  Brad Evans, Andy Behrens, Brandon Funston, and Scott Pianowski are a great group of guys who provide fun, informative, and timely fantasy football news and commentary.  They recently started their first Yahoo fantasy football mock draft with a few other experts.  This blog will take a look at the first few rounds.

The experts decided to go two picks in a row. I’m sure they did this for speed and simplicity’s sake, but it really has a negative impact on the draft. For example, Behren’s gets four picks in a row at the end of the first round. His personal rankings in that particular area dominate the draft. It’s not that big of a deal, especially since we’ll look at a variety of mock drafts, but it is something to keep in mind as you scroll through the picks below. I also couldn’t find any mention of the scoring system, so I’ll assume a standard non PPR.

Round 1:
1. Adrian Peterson (Evans)
2. Matt Forte (Evans)
3. MJD (Funston)
4. Michael Turner (Funston)
5. Brian Westbrook (Matt Romig)
6. DeAngelo Williams (Romig)
7. Ladanian Tomlinson (Michael Blunda)
8. Steven Jackson (Blunda)
9. Chris Johnson (Pianowski)
10. Larry Fitzgerald (Pianowski)
11. Frank Gore (Behrens)
12. Brandon Jacobs (Behrens)

The first five picks here will probably end up being the consensus top five, in varying order. You can make a compelling argument for any of those guys to be the top pick in different scoring formats. For non PPR I would go Peterson, Turner, MJD, Westbrook, Forte.

After these five things can get a little crazy from draft to draft. DeAngelo Williams, LaDanian Tomlinson, Chris Johnson, Marion Barber, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson could all EASILY be top five backs this season. They are each in tier 2 for their own reasons (unproven, unreliable, injuries, timeshares, etc.), but an owner drafting anywhere in the first round can get a stud RB. The RB field is simply flatter this year than it has ever been.

I’ve got no major beef with any of these picks. First round snubs are Marion Barber and Clinton Portis. Barber’s toe injury and Romo’s finger injury really cut into his season totals. He will return to the elite ranks this season even while splitting time with Felix Jones, and should get all the goal line carries in a strong offense. Portis ends up being an elite fantasy back at the end of each season but rarely gets the draft love that he should. Either of these guys could have been taken over Jacobs, who still seems like an injury waiting to happen. Jacobs is a TD machine, though, and in a non PPR league deserves a first round pick.

Round 2:
13. Andre Johnson (Behrens)
14. Steve Slaton (Behrens)
15. Clinton Portis (Pianowski)
16. Randy Moss (Pianowski)
17. Steve Smith (Blunda)
18. Calvin Johnson (Blunda)
19. Marion Barber (Romig)
20. Drew Brees (Romig)
21. Ronnie Brown (Funston)
22. Greg Jennings (Funston)
23. Pierre Thomas (Evans)
24. Tom Brady (Evans)

I don’t think you can draft Steve Slaton over Clinton Portis in a non PPR league. Portis simply gets it done every year. He’s a yardage and TD’s anchor that you can get in the early second round. Slaton has upside and excitement, but its only his second season. Don’t reach for him unless its PPR. I would also take TD machine Barber over Slaton in this format.

The WRs fly off the board here, which will probably be the standard in all 2009 mock drafts. Randy Moss has to be the first or second WR off the board. The Brady-Moss connection is back for another TD frenzy - anything under 15 receiving TDs would be a disappointment. I love Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, and Calvin Johnson in these spots as well. I think Reggie Wayne and Anquan Boldin should also go in the second round.

Drafting a QB in round 2 seems unnecessary this year. Brees, Brady, and Manning can all compete for top honors. Warner, Rivers, and Rodgers are not that far behind. Also, Donovan McNabb is set for a big season and may go 5 or 6 rounds later. Stick to top RBs and WRs in round 2 because the elite talent won’t be dropping much further.

The first pick of the draft I really don’t like is Ronnie Brown. His stretch run was atrocious. In fact, if you take out the legendary Wildcat game vs the Patriots, his whole season was atrocious. Ricky Williams and Pat White will limit his carries and upside. I could be way off base because a lot of smart people are reaching for him in mock drafts, but I just can’t stomach drafting him over an elite WR.

Round 3:
25. Marques Colston (Evans)
26. Roddy White (Evans)
27. Anquan Boldin (Funston)
28. Reggie Wayne (Funston)
29. Kevin Smith (Romig)
30. Dwayne Bowe (Romig)
31. Peyton Manning (Blunda)
32. Kurt Warner (Blunda)
33. TJ Housh (Pianowski)
34. Terrell Owens (Pianowski)
35. Wes Welker (Behrens)
36. Ryan Grant (Behrens)

Lots of great WRs go off the board here. Colston, White, Boldin, and Wayne are all good values in early round three. I don’t like the Housh, Owens, and Welker picks, though. Housh and Welker should be knocked down a round in non PPR leagues. Edwards to Owens is not something I’m willing to gamble a third round pick on. I would have probably taken Bush in any of those three spots.

I found Blunda’s back to back picks of Manning and Warner really interesting. As elite talent in other positions fade I’m all for taking elite QBs there. Manning fits that bill, but does Warner? I think so, but its ballsy to take him in the third. If you’re looking to get Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner, or Rivers you may have to do it by the early fourth round. Considering the top wideouts are gone and the RB2 and 3s are still verrry deep at this point, I think it’s the right spot.

Overall, I really like the way these guys are drafting.  We’re months away from the season, but I think we’ll see final ADPs come in pretty similar to what they are suggesting.

First three round snubs: Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, and Marshawn Lynch.